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Since economists use the base level of output in the previous quarter as the liftoff point for estimating subsequent quarters, forecastersâ collective projections are more tentative than usual given the high likelihood that the historical profile changes, LaVorgna said.
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All major decisions on foreign policy go through the Ayatollah. In Iran, the president doesnât have the last word on the most important security matters, like the nuclear program and Syria. Sanctions will remain in place for the foreseeable future, putting a ceiling on the near-term economic improvements that Rohani can implement. Lastly, even if Rohani did have free rein, he would not upend the system. He is a consummate insider, working his way up within the Iranian establishment: he ran Iranâs national security council for almost two decades, spent three years as the top nuclear negotiator, and he maintains the trust of the clerics. He campaigned as a moderate, not a reformer.